Posted on 18 Jun 2020
COVID-19 Grows … Relentlessly
I no longer track the number of infections as I used to in the past. COVID-19 continues to spread relentlessly and every day we see another new record. What we need to focus on is “what’s coming up next”.
World Bank Forecast
The first few words of the Executive Summary says it all: Pandemic, Recession, Global Economy in Crisis.
Global economy will contract 5.2% in 2020, the deepest global recession in 80 years, despite unprecedented policy support. This will worsen if the pandemic takes longer to control. The good news is the global economy in 2021 is forecasted to grow at 4.2%. However, considering the uncertainties in current times, this baseline forecast is dependent on recovery from mid-2020 onwards as the economies re-open.
Key Impacts to ASEAN
· Economic conditions deteriorated from March to May, due to national lockdowns and global negative spillovers
· Abrupt tightening of global financing conditions triggered sudden capital outflows, spike in regional interest rates and adjustment of local currencies
· Factory closures and disruption of production of intermediate inputs have negative impacts on supply chains
· Containment efforts resulted in plunge in consumption, investment, production and trade flows, leading to sharpest fall in activity since the Asian Financial crisis.
· The outbreak appears to have subsided in Malaysia and Vietnam, but not yet peaked in Philippines and Indonesia
· All major economies in ASEAN have implemented large macroeconomic policy support to mitigate the impact
· Malaysia and Thailand have implemented extraordinary economic support packages equivalent to around 17% and 13% of GDP
· Indonesia and Philippines have announced sizeable fiscal stimulus packages ranging around 3-5% of GDP
Table 1: World Bank Forecast (June 2020)
|
Annual estimates and forecasts |
||||||||
|
(Percent change) |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
2017 |
2018 |
2019 est |
2020 fcst |
2021 fcst |
|
World |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
-5.2 |
4.2 |
|||
|
Advanced economies |
2.5 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
-7.0 |
3.9 |
|||
|
> USA |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
-6.1 |
4.0 |
|||
|
> Euro Area |
2.5 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
-9.1 |
4.5 |
|||
|
> Japan |
2.2 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
-6.1 |
2.5 |
|||
|
East Asia and Pacific |
6.5 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
0.5 |
6.6 |
|||
|
> China |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
1.0 |
6.9 |
|||
|
> Indonesia |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
4.8 |
|||
|
> Malaysia |
5.7 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
-3.1 |
6.9 |
|||
|
> Myanmar |
6.2 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
1.5 |
6.0 |
|||
|
> Philippines |
6.9 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
-1.9 |
6.2 |
|||
|
> Thailand |
4.1 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
-5.0 |
4.1 |
|||
|
> Vietnam |
6.8 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
2.8 |
6.8 |
|||
|
South Asia |
6.5 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
-2.7 |
2.8 |
|||
|
> India |
7.0 |
6.1 |
4.2 |
-3.2 |
3.1 |
|||
O
· Large downward revisions in forecast for Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand reflecting significant impact of domestic lockdown measures as well as the impact from reduced tourism, disruption of trade and manufacturing sector, the spillovers from financial markets and lower commodity prices in Malaysia
· Uncertainty remains in the duration and spread of the pandemic, effectiveness of policy implementation and external impacts
· The recovery process in many tourism, export oriented, remittances and commodity dependent economies will be impeded by trade slowdown and low commodity prices
The 2020 SEAISI e-Conference
The SEAISI Conference and Exhibition is the only Steel Industry event in the ASEAN region that is backed by the Steel Industry from 10 member countries, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. There is no other.
Once a year, each of our member country representatives will present an update on the Steel Industry Situation of his/her country. For this year, you will get this update at the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference.
The SEAISI e-Conference (Part I: Market and Economics) from 30 June 2020 to 2 May 2020. The event will run from 3pm to 6pm for 3 days, covering:
· Regional Developments
· Market Perspectives
· 10 Country Reports across APAC region
· Plenary Session with Steel Industry CEO’s discussing about COVID-19 impacts
The Plenary Session will have the following speakers discussing the COVID-19 impact:
· Mr Win Viriyaprapaikit, CEO, Sahaviriya Steel Industries, Thailand
· Mr Ngiem Xuan Da, Chairman, Vietnam Steel Corporation, Vietnam
· Mr Silmy Karim, President Director, PT Krakatau Steel, Indonesia
· Dr Nae Hee Han, Director, Economic Affairs and Chief Economist at World Steel Association
Want to know “what’s coming up next”? Come join us at the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference from 30 June -2 July 2020.
Keep Your Distance. Stay Healthy. Stay Safe.
YEOH WEE JIN
Source:SEAISI
