Posted on 11 Apr 2025
The international coke market needs 3-4 years to stabilise and reach a stable level, according to Jiao Yong, executive deputy GM international business division of China Risun.
They made the comments at the Kallanish Asia Steel Markets conference in Ho Chi Minh City on 10 April and said he foresees growing coke capacity in Indonesia. He projects Indonesia to emerge as the largest coke exporter with about 7 million tonnes in 2025, up from 5.56mt in 2024.
He also expects independent coke capacity in Indonesia to reach 12.7mt in 2025.
Independent coke production in the country is forecast to increase by 1.5mt to 8mt this year.
"The quick increase of coke capacity and coke export from Indonesia in a short period of two years is significantly change the international supply and demand balance, and the international market is restructuring," he says.
In terms of demand, Jiao expects an increase in crude steel capacity in India and Southeast Asia. However, he notes that decarbonisation in Europe, government policies and trade wars are making the international coke market unstable and volatile.
With new crude steel capacity put into production, the coke import demand for Southeast Asia and its nearby region (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia and China Taiwan) is seen to increase to 4.6mt in 2025-2026. He also sees huge coke demand from China with 10mt per year.
Although India is restricting the import of coke, based on the steady increase of crude steel capacity in India until 2030, he opines that India will still be the top coke importer with at least 4mt/year. India imported 5.05mt of coke in 2024, with 2.6mt imported from Indonesia.
He also highlights that steelmakers need to embrace the changes, and considering the decarbonisation targets, decrease the captive coke productive and buy more from Indonesia. He also sees need for coke makers to stick to the regional market, and forge competitiveness.
Source:Kallanish
