Posted on 27 Mar 2025
Chinese steel exports will remain elevated in 2025 and continue exerting pressure on global markets, while widening overcapacity will push certain third countries to seek alternative outlets and exert import pressure on the EU, the European Commission concluded during its safeguard measure review.
The Commission confirmed earlier this week its safeguard measure adjustments, effective 1 April, following a review initiated in December (see Kallanish passim).
Since the last investigation, the import presence in the Union market of some origins where capacity expansions continue – notably ASEAN, India, China, Middle East and North Africa – remains high or has increased, the Commission notes. “This data showed a correlation between capacity developments and level of import pressure from those origins on the Union market,” it adds.
Besides overcapacity, the Commission cited trade defence measures in other countries, including US tariffs, as justification for adjusting safeguard measures.
The number of trade defence measures in place at the end of 2024 exceeded those in place the year before. Beyond trade defence measures, the number of tariff measures in place increased in Türkiye, Colombia and Canada, while South Africa implemented safeguard measures on certain steel products and India initiated a safeguard investigation on flat steel, the Commission states.
The US meanwhile imposed a blanket 25% steel tariff. “Given the size of the US market and the level of duty, the Commission considers that this development, together with the additional tariff measures implemented by other countries, would create further tensions on the steel markets, thus increasing the risks of additional trade diversion into the Union,” it adds.
The Commission’s investigation found that EU production capacity utilisation of the products concerned fell to 67% in 2023 and 2024 versus 78% in 2021. Long products suffered the steepest drop, to 61.3% utilisation in 2024 versus 74.7% in 2021.
Consumption fell 14% in 2024 versus 2021 to 143.9 million tonnes, but domestic sales market share dropped only to 79% from 79.7%. Union industry profitability was negative 0.4% in 2024 versus 9.1% in 2021.
The market share of imports was 25.6% in 2024 versus 24.8% in 2021 for flats, remained at 12.8% for longs, and inched up 0.1 percentage points for tube to 21.9%.
The Commission identified categories 1A – hot rolled coil, 4A – metallic coated sheet, 7 – plate, 21 – hollow sections, and 24 – other seamless tube as the products facing most import pressure.
Between 2021 and 2024, consumption decreased by 27% in category 4A, on average by 17% in categories 1A and 24, and 7% in categories 7 and 21. Import shares increased significantly in all categories.
Source:Kallanish
