Posted on 26 Mar 2025
Copper imports into the US are estimated to grow seven-fold amid fears that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on the metal.
Last month, the White House ordered an evaluation of copper imports alleging national security concerns. This could lead to tariffs of 25% potentially implemented before the end of the year.
According to Bloomberg, commodity trader Mercuria projects that around 500,000 tonnes of copper are being shipped to the US, compared to the 70,000 t normally imported into the country. Mercuria itself has 85,000-90,000 t on the way, the report said Monday.
On Tuesday, Kostas Bintas, global head of metals and minerals at Mercuria, told the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne that the copper market is experiencing “tightness” and is heading to prices of $12,000/tonne or above.
Bintas, who was also quoted by Bloomberg, explains that the significant US copper imports, ahead of potential tariffs, are reshaping the market. Copper demand is usually dominated by Chinese consumption.
The spike in demand has fuelled copper futures prices in the US, which were $5.20/pound on Tuesday on the Comex, equivalent to over $11,460/t. In comparison, LME futures were $9,956/t.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs forecast that US copper net imports would rise by 50-100% before tariffs are imposed, pushing US copper inventories up by 200,000-300,000 t by the end of Q3.
“The increase in imports should mainly come from a partial diversion of material from South America and Africa that was destined for Asia,” analysts say. “Importantly, metal that flows to the US will be stranded, as the higher domestic price will discourage re-export.”
This dynamic will result in artificially tight markets outside of the US, leading to a 180,000 t global copper market deficit in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs. The outlook comes amid electrification demand, China stimulus offsetting tariff headwinds and slower mine supply growth.
Source:Kallanish
