Posted on 20 Mar 2025
The Indian rebar market has responded positively to the commerce ministry’s recent proposal to impose a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports.
Prices, which had been on an upward trajectory for the past five weeks, surged further by INR 500-1,000/tonne ($5.79-11.59/t) following the announcement. Some sellers even withheld offers to gauge market dynamics and decide on further price hikes, notes Kallanish.
Primary rebar (12-32mm, IS 1786 Fe 550D) is now assessed at INR 56,000-56,500/t ex-Mumbai, while secondary rebar (12-25mm, IS 1786 Fe 500D) is priced at INR 45,500-46,000/t ex-Raipur.
The safeguard duty proposal has triggered a buying frenzy, with rebar buyers rushing to restock in anticipation of a sharp price increase, shifting the market in their favour.
Although the duty applies to flat steel, its impact has rippled through the entire steel sector, boosting overall sentiment.
“Safeguard duty is on flat steel, but rebar prices are rising. The market had been sluggish for months, but this shift is expected to sustain for at least a month,” said a Mumbai-based rebar trader.
A Raipur-based rebar manufacturer added, “The billet-to-rebar conversion spread has narrowed over the last six months, indicating weak end-user demand. A positive correction in rebar prices was necessary to prevent further losses.”
The billet-rebar spread has declined by INR 1,000-1,200/t across various locations in India, mainly due to sluggish demand from government infrastructure projects and higher iron ore costs.
However, a Delhi-based market expert remains cautious: “This rally is largely supply- and sentiment-driven. The duty is only a recommendation, and even if approved, the initial surge may fade. Ultimately, rebar price trends will depend on demand. For now, it’s a wait-and-watch situation.”
However, most industry participants believe that with construction activity at its peak and steel mills curbing production due to high temperatures and labour shortages, a significant decline in domestic rebar prices is unlikely in the near term.
Source:Kallanish
