Posted on 07 Mar 2025
China's hot-rolled coil (HRC) market is expected to find some balance in March, supported by recovering domestic demand and proactive production cuts, despite headwinds from a worsening trade environment globally caused by rising steel protectionism, Mysteel's latest monthly report suggests.
For March, China's spot price of Q235B 4.75mm HRC in Shanghai under Mysteel's assessment will stay largely flat on month at Yuan 3,425/tonne ($473/t) including the VAT on average, the report suggests.
On the one hand, China's manufacturing sector has steadily ramped up production since the end of the Chinese New Year holiday in early February this year, driving up the country's domestic HRC consumption.
March, traditionally a peak month for factory restarts, is set to sustain such growth, the report highlights.
For instance, the scheduled production of China's three most popular home appliances – air-conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines – is estimated to jump by 39% on month to total 40.5 million units this month, according to ChinaIOL.com, a leading domestic information provider serving the home appliance and refrigeration industries.
China's apparent consumption of hot coils may rise by 9% from February to average 3.25 million tonnes per week this month, Mysteel's report predicts.
On the other hand, however, while domestic demand remains robust, overseas demand for China-origin HRC has been dampened by tariff increases, the report warns.
In late February Vietnam, China's largest overseas market for steel, announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC of as much as 27.83% which will take effect on March 7, as reported.
This has not only hit domestic market sentiment but will also weakened China's price advantage for HRC in the Vietnamese market and caused a sharp drop in its export volumes. Chinese HRC exports to Vietnam are likely to fall below 300,000 tonnes in March, plunging by 65% on year, the report suggests.
However, it is under such huge export pressure that steel mills are less willing to increase HRC production, and some have taken the initiative to schedule more maintenance stoppages. This, in return, will offset the decline in the volume of Chinese hot coil produced for export and should bring some relief to the flat product's price.
Average HRC output among the 37 Chinese flat steel producers Mysteel regularly monitors is predicted to ease by 55,000 tonnes or 1.7% on month to average 3.21 million tonnes per week in March, the report observes.
Source:Mysteel Global
