Posted on 08 Jul 2021
The disastrous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on steel demand in ASEAN-6 has resulted in a negative double digit growth rate of 12% in 2020. Apparent consumption of steel (ASC) or demand declined to 70.6 million tonnes from 80.3 million tonnes from a year ago.
However, finished steel production remained positive, at 3.7% increase to 46.3 million tonnes in 2020. Import declined 18.2% y-o-y to 41.9 million tonnes. On the other hand, export registered a double-digit growth rate of 12.8% y-o-y to 17.58 million tonnes.
Indonesia’s steel demand posed a negative growth rate of 5.3% y-o-y to 15.1 million tonnes in 2020. The decline in steel demand in the country was the result of a double digit decrease of flat steel demand, at 19% y-o-y to 7.3 million tonnes in 2020. Flat steel production registered a moderate increase of 6.5% y-o-y to 6.2 million tonnes. Import dropped significantly, at 34% y-o-y to 4.2 million tonnes whereas export remained at 3 million tonnes, a slight decrease of 1.4% y-o-y.
Long steel demand in Indonesia registered a double digit increase of 12.7% y-o-y to 7.8 million tonnes. This was due to a ongoing government’s infrastructure project. Production jumped by nearly 2 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes in 2020. Import was largely substituted by domestic production and the volume dropped 30% to 1.4 million tonnes in the same year. Long steel export in Indonesia was not significant. However, the volume doubled in volume to 529,460 tonnes.
Malaysia was badly hit by the pandemic with an estimated negative growth rate of 38% y-o-y, or a drop of more than 3 million tonnes of steel demand to 5.7 million tonnes in 2020. Production, on the other hand, remained at a positive growth rate of 4%, growing to 5.5 million tonnes in the same period. Import declined 19% y-o-y to 5.3 million tonnes while export surged significantly, at 89% y-o-y to 5.2 million tonnes in the same period.
Flat steel demand dropped 20% y-o-y to 3.4 million tonnes. There was no production for hot rolled sheet/ coil. A small amount of hot rolled flat steel output was hot rolled plates. The volume dropped by half to 122,000 tonnes in 2020. Import shrank by a million tonnes to 3.9 million tonnes. Export also declined, at 22% y-o-y to 674,591 tonnes in the same period.
Long steel demand dropped by half to 2.3 million tonnes in 2020. Production, on the other hand, remained a positive increase of 6.5% y-o-y to substitute import and to serve the export market. Import dropped 19% y-o-y to 1.4 million tonnes. Long steel export at 4.5 million tonnes in 2020 was a big jump from 1.9 million tonnes in 2019. This was because of a significant increase in bar and wire rod export.
Philippines’ steel demand registered a double-digit decline of 15.5% y-o-y to 8.5 million tonnes in 2020. Flat steel demand dropped 13.8% y-o-y to 2.9 million tonnes. There is no flat steel production in the country. The demand is entirely served by import. Long steel demand dropped 16% y-o-y to 5.7 million tonnes. Production contacted by a million tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes in 2020. Import remained stable at 2 million tonnes, which was a slight decline of 1.6% y-o-y.
Singapore’s steel demand also registered a double-digit decline of 31% y-o-y to 1.6 million tonnes in 2020 due to slump in construction activities during the lockdown. Flat steel demand dipped 21% y-o-y to 526,286 tonnes. Import dropped moderately, by 4.6% to 1.4 million tonnes. Export surged 8% y-o-y to 908,938 tonnes in the same period.
Long steel demand in Singapore registered a significant decline of 35% y-o-y to 1.1 million tonnes. Both production and import dropped by double digits of 21% and 34% respectively. Export shrank 22% to 597,090 tonnes in 2020.
Thailand’s steel demand dropped 11% y-o-y to 16.3 million tonnes in 2020. This was due to the continued slowdown in the country’s economy as well as the impact from business activities restrictions due to COVID-19. Production dropped by half a million tonnes to 7.2 million tonnes in the same period. Import declined by nearly 2 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes. Export contracted from 1.2 million tonnes to below a million tonnes.
Flat steel demand dipped 12.5% y-o-y to 10.2 million tonnes. Both production and import registered negative growth rates of 5.6% and 13.6% to 2.6 million tonnes and 8 million tonnes, respectively.
Long steel demand registered a single digit negative growth rate of 9.3% to 6.1 million tonnes. Demand dipped to 4.6 million tonnes. Import dropped by half a million tonnes to 2 million tonnes. Export declined from 725,454 tonnes to 469,234 tonnes in the same period.
Vietnam’s steel demand in 2020 registered the lowest negative growth rate of 4% compared to the other ASEAN countries. This was mainly due to the fast control over COVID-19 within the country. Total steel demand registered 23.3 million tonnes. Production, on the other hand, rose 6.6% y-o-y to 16.4 million tonnes in the same period. Import dropped by more than 2 million tonnes to 13.2 million tonnes. Export dipped moderately, by 4.7% to 6.3 million tonnes.
Flat steel demand dipped 5.5% y-o- y to 12.1 million tonnes in 2020. Import shrank by a million tonnes to 12.2 million tonnes and export dipped slightly to 4.5 million tonnes.
Long steel demand contacted slightly, by 2.4% y-o-y to 11.2 million tonnes. Production increased 6.2% to nearly 12 million tonnes, mainly to substitute import, which declined by half to 1 million tonnes. Export declined 10.5% to 1.8 million tonnes.
Source:SEAISI
