Posted on 30 Dec 2024
Chinese domestic hot rolled coil prices last week slipped further on subdued demand. This also impacted export prices, while Vietnamese import markets remained relatively stable, Kallanish notes.
In Shanghai on Friday afternoon, 5.5x1,500mm Q235B HRC was traded at around CNY 3,360-3,380/tonne ($460-463/t), down CNY 40/t from a week earlier.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded January 2025 contract for HRC lost CNY 28/t from Thursday and CNY 10/t on-week to CNY 3,400/t.
Weekly apparent consumption of HRC was still falling, impacting the stability of spot prices. Although stable futures supported spot prices, merchants were willing to give discounts to conclude deals so that real transaction prices were moving down.
In Wuxi on Friday afternoon, 20x2,000mm Q235B plate prices were assessed at around CNY 3,510-3,530/t, unchanged from the prior assessment.
Medium and thick plate prices finally held steady after one round of increase and decrease last week. Demand was also not good, but low inventories kept market sentiment stable and prevented Friday's price drop from overly impacting the market.
Export prices of Chinese HRC were also falling due to the domestic price decrease, as well as Chinese exporters wanting to sell as much as possible before the implementation of Vietnam’s pending anti-dumping duties.
On Friday, a Chinese exporter said that the lowest deal price of Chinese Q195 HRC was just $471/t cfr Vietnam. The level is about $5/t lower on-week.
The most competitive offers for Q195 HRC were $465/t fob China. “Even mills can now just offer $470/t fob in the Middle East,” a Shanghai-based exporter said on Friday. SAE 1006 HRC offers were still higher than $485/t fob China, but also showed a slight on-week decrease.
Kallanish assessed 2mm SAE 1006 HRC at $485-495/t fob China on 27 December, down $5/t on-week.
In Vietnam, rerollers are trying to find HRC substitutes ahead of the much-anticipated anti-dumping action against Chinese HRC. At least two rerollers, including a leading reroller, are heard to have ordered around 20,000t of SAE 1006 grade HRC at $510-515/t cfr for February shipment.
A leading Indonesian HRC mill and a Malaysian mill which just started operations were offering at the same level of $520/t cfr Vietnam. Most market sources in Vietnam report hearing that rerollers ordered from the Indonesian mill.
“They want to test the HRC and if the quality is okay, they will have more [supply] choices,” a trader in Ho Chi Minh City stays. These bookings were made during the week through 21 December. “I think prices are slightly lower now,” he adds.
A Hanoi trader hears that a leading reroller booked 5,000-10,000t for testing purposes. “They want to use Indonesian HRC to compete with the domestic producers,” he reports.
Chinese SAE 1006 grade HRC is being offered at $500/t cfr. “It is from a trader but no one wants to buy,” a buyer says. Vietnamese market sources did not hear of much trading activity for Chinese SAE 1006 HRC in recent weeks.
SAE grade 2-2.7mm thickness HRC is assessed unchanged at $500-510/t cfr Vietnam.
Source:Kallanish
