Posted on 18 Dec 2024
Chinese lithium carbonate is one of the commodities expected to see the biggest gains in average prices next year, according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company.
The battery raw material could see an average price growth of around 30% in 2025 to $20,000/tonne. BMI forecasts China lithium carbonate price to average $15,500/t this year – which is higher than the current $10,466/t level, but lower than the $35,956/t average in 2023.
Despite the optimistic outlook for lithium, analysts warn that abundant supply, a stronger US dollar and negative sentiment will pressure overall commodities prices in 2025.
“While supported by the continuation of the monetary easing cycle into 2025 and resilient demand from the green energy sector, base metal prices are expected to be weighed down by the US dollar potentially breaking out higher along with subdued demand in China,” the analysts explain.
“A potential deceleration in energy transition amid Trump’s policy shifts might dampen, to some extent, the ‘green sentiment’ that bolstered prices in 2024, most notably for copper, driving the metal to record highs,” they continue.
Diverging from the broader trend, nickel is set for a decline for a third consecutive year. Its underperformance is tied to market oversupply, Kallanish notes.
BMI estimates nickel prices to average $17,000/t next year, compared to a forecast average of $17,100/t this year. Current prices, however, stand at $15,780/t.
Meanwhile, copper prices are set to rise to $10,000/t next year, from around $9,300/t in 2024. Currently, the red metal is trading at around $9,182/t, which is higher than the $8,523/t average in 2023.
Source:Kallanish
