Posted on 18 Dec 2024
Morning Brief: India's steel exports provisionally showed a 20% increase m-o-m in November 2024 to 0.70 million tonnes (mnt) compared to the October levels of 0.58 mnt.
However, when the first 8 months (8FY'25) of the fiscal year were considered (April-November, 2024), volumes revealed a 20% decline to 4.08 mnt against 4.97 mnt in the same period last fiscal (8MFY'24).
Country-wise break-up
Overall, volumes to all the key destinations remained more or less range-bound. The EU continues to be India's leading destination but volumes dipped 8% m-o-m to 0.28 mnt. Exports to Vietnam remained plunged at less than 1,000-odd tonnes. Nepal continued to offer steady support, up 8% m-o-m at more than 78,000 t. The Middle East dropped m-o-m by 7% to 49,000 t. The United States showed a more than four-fold increase to nearly 57,000 t albeit on a low base of 11,000 t in October.
Commodity-wise break-up
In a stark shift, semis exports surged by 141% to 0.16 mnt (65,000 t), while longs fell by 4,000 t to 36,000 t (40,000 t). Finished flats, which are the mainstay of India's steel exports, rose a modest 6% m-o-m in November to 0.51 mnt (0.48 mnt in October).
Slabs propel exports spurt in Nov
1) The 20% increase in steel exports last month was driven by the 141% surge in semis (slabs) overseas sales.
BigMint learnt that two consignments of around 50,000 tonnes each of the incremental volume went to Thailand and Mexico. Both cargoes were sent by one of India's leading tier-1 mills. Also, both the cargoes were despatched from two of India's ports located on the east coast - Dhamra and Paradip.
2) The slabs exports were a result of maintenance shutdowns taken by the tier-1 mill in September because of a pile-up of slabs in its yards, which it was unable to roll into HRCs and sell in the domestic market because of low demand.
3) The exports of flats semis (slabs, in this case), does not really augur well for Indian mills since it indicates low demand for finished flats reigning in the domestic market.
Outlook
Indian steel exports are expected to end the current financial year (FY'25) with a drop of 25-30% to around 5.5-6 mnt from 9.60 mnt in April-March, 2024 (FY'24). Chinese predatory pricing, a slump in demand amid weak global macro indicators and anti-dumping probes are key factors pulling down exports.
Source:BigMint
