Posted on 12 Dec 2024
A small surplus in supply next year is expected to result in an average coking price of $225/tonne, Kallanish notes from a Macquarie report.
It says that it still sees the first quarter of 2025 to be the strongest of the year at $240/t, factoring in seasonality as weather related issues in Queensland tend to occur during this quarter.
Modest surpluses, however, have downgraded prices in 2027-28 to $240/t and $230/t, with the market only likely to hit above $300/t if the balance tightens more acutely than currently foreseen.
For next year, Macquarie notes a further increase in met coal supply is expected based on the 83.3 million tonnes raw coal target set by the Mongolia government. It thinks this is feasible given that daily truck run-rate was lower than current in Q1 of 2024.
The research house also sees China’s domestic coal production next year would likely increase given no safety checks.
“On the balance, while China coal demand, as well as JKT (Japan, South Korean and Taiwan) and Europe demand wanes, India’s demand is expected to grow and cushion the decline,” Macquarie says.
Source:Kallanish
