Posted on 09 Dec 2024
Many Russian billet exporters were cautious in providing export indications due to the potential for rouble strengthening, which would limit the possibility of reducing prices, market participants tell Kallanish.
The rouble strengthened to 99.4215 per dollar on 7 December, after dropping to 110 on 27 November, its lowest level since the start of the war on Ukraine. The exchange rate fluctuations were a result of sanctions announced on 21 November, which targeted dozens of Russian banks, including Gazprombank, which had previously avoided sanctions due to its role in facilitating oil and gas exports.
The potential for further rouble strengthening could prompt Russian exporters to revise their offers, limiting the availability of further reductions. Increases remain possible, although limited by weak demand and downward pressure in key foreign markets.
Russian exporters are also expected to monitor the situation in light of the central bank’s anticipated key interest rate increase on 20 December.
This leaves limited time to finalise deals before the winter holiday break, which starts around 29 December. Normal activity is expected to resume after 13 January 2025.
Following reports of deals at $460/tonne cfr in Turkey the previous week, Turkish customers were last week seeking prices of $450-455/t cfr. In Egypt, offers of Russian origin were heard at $490/t cfr, reflecting the country's payment difficulties.
Russian-origin billet was assessed at $440-450/t fob Black Sea.
Wire rod was available at $500-515/t fob, depending on the producer, market conditions, and shipment terms – fob or cfr.
Source:Kallanish
