Posted on 18 Nov 2024
The billet import market continues to fall in Southeast Asia and China amid bearish market sentiment and the depreciated Chinese yuan, Kallanish notes.
The falling Chinese steel futures could cause regional billet prices to fall further.
Offers for open-origin 5sp 150mm square billet for January shipment were prevailing at $478-480/tonne cfr Manila, around $10/t lower from the week before.
“It is partly seasonal, but I also think the market is drifting while waiting for more positive news,” a Manila trader said. “Trump’s win certainly knocked some wind out of the global economy’s sail,” he added.
"With the SHFE softening, offers may be lower," an importer said on Friday.
A 26,000t Russian 5sp 125mm billet cargo was heard booked two weeks ago at $490/t cfr Manila. A deal for 6,000t high-manganese 5sp Japanese 130mm EAF December-shipment billet concluded around 4 November at $487/t cfr. The premium for the high-manganese content is $3-5/t.
Rebar demand has fallen, a local EAF mill manager said last Friday. "Construction activity has really slowed down.”
Kallanish assessed 5sp/ps or Q275 120/125/130mm square billet at $480/t cfr Manila, down $10/t on-week.
In China, 3sp 150mm billet was around $447/t fob last Friday, a fall of $25/t week-on-week, stemming from the slumped Shanghai steel futures and depreciated yuan-to-dollar exchange rate. The most traded January 2025 rebar contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by CNY 135/t ($19/t) w-o-w.
A weaker yuan-to-dollar forex has saved exporters around $8/t in costs, according to market sources on Friday. The slump in the Chinese futures caused certain Chinese mills to withdraw offers during Friday afternoon.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, Chinese 5sp 150mm billet were last heard offered at $478/t cfr Jakarta on 14 November. "Offers should be lower today," a Jakarta trader said on Friday.
He heard Chinese 3sp grade 150mm January-shipment billet booked at $470/t cfr Jakarta last Thursday. "It should be for 10,000-20,000t," he added.
Source:Kallanish
