Posted on 11 Nov 2024
The Vietnamese hot rolled coil market is seeing Chinese-origin HRC trading dwindle as a pending anti-dumping suit progresses, Kallanish notes. As expected, Vietnamese importers are reluctant to take the risk of paying anti-dumping duties as the trade case’s results draw closer.
“There are expectations that there will be some preliminary duties or retroactive taxes in December or early January,” a Hanoi trader said on Friday. “No one will book today except those who are willing to gamble.”
Market rumours suggest Indian-origin HRC imports will face anti-dumping duties of 22.27% and those from China, 27.83%. This is being reported by “mouthpieces” of one of the producers, says a regional trader.
Some Chinese traders are telling buyers they will bear the risk of any additional tariffs, another Hanoi trader relates, citing a discussion with a Vietnamese pipemaker who booked Chinese Q195 for December shipment at around $490-500/tonne cfr. However, even the pipemaker is uncertain whether the supplier involved will honour contractual delivery if tariffs are implemented.
Chinese Q235 3-12mm HRC for December shipment is offered at around $510/t cfr Vietnam. An offer for Chinese SAE 1006 2mm up thickness HRC for shipment by 20 December at $515/t cfr has not been taken up, a Vietnamese trader notes. SAE grade 2-2.7mm thickness HRC is assessed at $515-525/t cfr Vietnam, down $5 on-week.
Hoa Phat Group is expected to increase the existing 5.6 million t/year HRC capacity at its Dung Quat complex when the first of two new blast furnaces is completed as part of its expansion to double capacity. Commissioning of the nearly 3m t/y new capacity is scheduled in the first quarter of next year. The second new blast furnace could start by end-2025 but this will depend on steel market conditions.
Hoa Phat’s expanded capacity, together with imports from Japan and South Korea, and Formosa Ha Tinh’s capacity estimated at 5m t/y would meet Vietnam’s consumption of around 13-15m t/y, an industry observer says.
Meanwhile, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel is expected to announce the price of its January-shipment HRC allocations during the week beginning 11 November. Market sources hear that the mill may keep prices unchanged. The producer’s non-skin passed SAE 1006 HRC for December was pegged at around $540/t cif Ho Chi Minh City.
On 1 November, Hoa Phat offered its non-skin passed SAE1006 or SS400 grade HRC for January/February shipment at the equivalent of around $534/t cfr southern Vietnam, excluding VAT.
Source:Kallanish
