Posted on 17 Oct 2024
The concern was voiced at the recent 91st meeting of the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas) in Paris. Chairman Murat Cebecioğlu said that the supply and demand balance in the global long steel industry was becoming more and more unstable.
Cebecioğlu pointed out that Chinese finished steel products were dominating most markets. China’s exports of semi-finished and finished steel products have increased from 5.6 million tonnes in 2022 to 7.7 million tonnes in 2023 and are expected to be around 8.7 million tonnes in 2024.
If the Chinese continued in the same way, the chairman warned, the global steel industry would suffer great damage.
Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, noted that attractive prices meant that Turkish mills would continue to buy Chinese billet as an alternative to higher-priced scrap, putting pressure on scrap prices.
But he argued that any surge in protectionist measures in reaction to this would provide only short-term relief. Regarding iron ore, Alff stated that rebar production in China had decreased amid destocking due to the switch to a new rebar standard, resulting in lower demand for iron ore.
Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that optimistic sentiments for the second half of the year had been postponed until 2025. But he thought slowing Chinese production could help the rest of the world in terms of reduced Chinese export volumes.
Regarding Turkey, Björkman said the domestic market had postponed scrap purchases during the summer and autumn due to competitive alternative options of semi-finished products from China. He expected Turkey to continue importing billet, slabs and HRC, thus negatively affecting scrap prices.
Irepas chairman Cebecioğlu reported that producers in GCC countries were more optimistic than those in other countries. Gulf economies were moving in the right direction, he said, amid new infrastructure projects such as in Saudi Arabia. EU business seemed to be at a standstill and little improvement was expected in the next six months.
On the other hand, Turkey was ‘being pushed into a corner’ by protectionist measures, while it could not sell to some Asian countries which used to be its main export destinations for long products.
Commenting on the global longs market in general, Cebecioğlu concluded: ‘The near future does not look bright. We will probably see the same trend unless China stops exporting.’
Source:Recycling International
