Posted on 28 Aug 2024
Industry experts hold mixed views for steel demand across ASEAN countries, Kallanish heard during Wednesday’s ASEAN Steel Demand Forecast e-Event organised by the South East Asia Iron & Steel Institute (Seaisi).
Indonesian steel firm Krakatau Steel corporate regulatory affairs manager Ilham Arief Gautama said Indonesian steel consumption is estimated to grow 5.2% on-year in 2024 to 18.5 million tonnes, and then increase 5.5% in 2025 to 19.6mt.
"This growth will be supported by various conditions including global steel growth, national economic growth and projects, infrastructure spending and growth in the other sectors, like property, automotive and households appliances," he noted.
Meanwhile, Malaysia Iron and Steel Federation assistant manager Mohd Rezuan Masran expects apparent steel consumption (ASC) in Malaysia to grow 4.5% on-year in 2024 to 8.2mt and 4.6% in 2025 to 8.6mt.
According to him, the forecast is based on the Malaysian government GDP growth projection of 4-5% and manufacturing growth of 3.5% for 2024.
Singaporean steel firm Nasteel strategy and business development vice president Eugene Ng also projected Singapore's steel consumption to rise 1.9% to 3mt in 2024, 3.3% to 3.1mt in 2025, and 3.2% to 3.2mt in 2026.
The growth will be underpinned by key major projects such as Rapid Transit System, Changi Terminal 5, Long Island, Kallang Alive Precint, Greater Southern Waterfront, Sakra Cogen Plant, Tuas Port and Second Central Business District.
Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand industry analyst Worada Jangbangsakae, on the other hand, foresees Thailand's apparent steel use falling 0.1% on-year to 16.32mt in 2024, but rising 1.9% to 16.64mt in 2025.
"Steel demand in Thailand is expected to slow down [this year] because of the slow recovery in production sector in downstream industries," she said. According to her, the delay in the budget disbursement has affected public investment and government spending on various projects in 2024.
She also noted the upward trend in 2025 will result from a very low baseline in 2023-2024. Besides, the global and domestic economies are expected to expand. "This steel demand is expected to recover gradually but still be unable to expand fully to reach close to normal levels, according to economic conditions for both the domestic and international market," she added.
As for the Philippines, SteelAsia Manufacturing assistant vice president Ronald Joel C. Magsajo expects the country's ASC to achieve moderate growth of about 2.2% to 9.4mt this year.
"The steel industry growth [this year] has been a little slow, particularly because of the seasonal slowdown for the construction sector in the Philippines, which is dragged by the wet season," he noted.
Meanwhile, Vietnam Steel Association industry analyst officer Trang Thi Thu Ha foresees the country's ASC increasing 5% on-year to 21.73mt in 2024 and reaching 22.81mt in 2025.
According to her, the Vietnamese steel market showed positive signs of recovery in the first half of 2024, with prospects for further export growth in H2 and the 2025-2027 period.
Source:Kallanish
