Posted on 19 Aug 2024
Chinese OEMs saw their share in the EU new battery electric (BEV) car market rise to 12.4% in June, according to German consultancy Schmidt Automotive Research.
Chief analyst Matthias Schmidt says the record BEV registrations of Chinese brands in West Europe is a result of an “inventory dump” prior to provisional EU tariffs. The import duties increased to up to 48%, from the previous 10%, in early July.
In 12 months, the share stood at 10%, with every tenth new BEV model in the region being from a Chinese brand. “We see this as unsustainable for a prolonged period, in the short term,” the analyst says in a note on Friday.
“Long-term we don’t see Chinese OEMS surpassing 12% market share for a prolonged period with incumbents bringing more competitive models from 2025 to help achieve new regulatory fleet CO2 targets, alongside provisional tariff headwinds also biting of course,” adds Schmidt.
The consultancy believes the boost seen in June was from “this inventory burn which saw one OEM offering buy one get one free (BOGOF) deals in Germany.” It did not name the carmaker offering such a promotion and Kallanish could not verify the claim.
Amid higher BEV import duties and weaker demand, Chinese OEMs are expected to target non-EU European markets in the next months. So far, the UK, Norway and Switzerland have no plans to replicate the tariff hike.
However, Chinese BEV manufacturers remain in a position to offset some of those tariffs, Schmidt adds. That’s because they stand to benefit from EU regulatory carbon credits from 2025.
The analysts predict the BEV market to fall in July and August “quite severely due to inflated volumes last year due to a German pull forward last summer.” The outlook should improve in the final quarter of the year, with companies pushing for higher volumes.
In July, Germany – Western Europe’s largest EV market – reported a drop of 36.8% in passenger BEV registrations, with Chinese carmakers BYD and Nio experiencing declines of 43.1% and 27.3% y-o-y.
Source:Kallanish Power Materials
