Posted on 09 Aug 2024
Chinese and ASEAN billet prices are sinking to recent lows in tandem with the Chinese domestic steel market, Kallanish notes. Amid a fluctuating and bearish Chinese market, the rebar import market in Singapore continues to be quiet as buyers look for market stability.
A recent booking by Chinese traders for Chinese 3sp 150mm billet from eastern China closed on Thursday at $448/tonne fob, Chinese trading sources confirm. An offer for same grade and size billet from China is prevailing at $470/t cfr Indonesia, a trader in Jakarta says. He estimates freight at $22/t.
Another Jakarta-based trader hears offers could be as low as $465/t cfr. “Some port freight costs can be as low as $17/t if the cargo is for 20,000-30,000t,” he says. These recent offers are from traders which are shorting the market, “so hard to say what are their costings for an fob price.”
“The slump in futures today offset the stronger CNY today,” he adds.
Another trader thinks that despite the stronger Chinese currency, “mills want to unload their cargoes because it is even worse for them when there is no turnover.” This is particularly so when the market is negative and bearish. “I thought that the market hit bottom on Wednesday, but it turns out that I was wrong,” he says.
There does not seem to be much price support for the market at the current time because of the weakness in China and the uncertain global macroeconomic outlook, a regional trader says. He has heard that a leading Indonesian mill is now offering 3sp 150mm billet at $455/t fob and for certain Chinese mills, $445/t fob. But others say that the Indonesian mill's offers are probably at $455-460/t fob. The offers from northern Chinese mills are at least $450/t fob, a Chinese trader says.
Meanwhile, theoretical-weight Malaysian rebar for September shipment is last heard unchanged this week at around $500/t dap (trucked to Singapore), similar to last week. The dap Singapore basis price is $5-10/t higher than cfr Singapore basis.
The market in Singapore is quiet with very thin buying interest. “With [Chinese] prices dropping, who will enquire,” a Singapore buyer says on why he has stopped asking for offers. Kallanish assessed BS4449 500B 10-40mm diameter rebar at $490-495/t cfr Singapore theoretical weight, unchanged on week.
Source:Kallanish
