Posted on 30 Jul 2024
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has launched an anti-dumping investigation into certain hot rolled coil originating from China and India, Kallanish learns.
The products involved are carbon and alloy HRC in a thickness of 1.2-25.4mm, and a width of no more than 1,880mm.
They come under HS codes 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.51.00, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, and 7208.90.90, as well as, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, 7226.91.90, 7226.99.19, and 7226.99.99.
This comes after a petition submitted by domestic manufacturers Hoa Phat Group and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel. The two expressed their intentions as early as 19 March, while on 31 May, a full petition was submitted with additional information required by authorities.
The period of investigation for the dumping assessment is from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024, and for injury assessment it is three years from 1 July 2021. The investigation may last up to 12 months and must not exceed 18 months if extended.
The vast majority of Chinese exporters do not believe that an AD measure will be introduced. They cite the importance of Chinese HRC in Vietnam and opposition from most Vietnamese downstream consumers.
Indian market sources say they will be keeping an eye on the situation to determine how things evolve.
A source notes: “China is the focus now, as there have been no supplies from India for a long time. Indian mills have been completely out of that market and do not dare to match current import levels there, so I am not convinced with the timing of launching an investigation on Indian origin.”
In the five months through May, Vietnam imported nearly 4.9 million tonnes of HRC, which surged 61.8% year-on-year. Within this, China-origin supply surged 107% to 3.62mt, while intake from India fell 32.7% to only 152,746t.
The share of Chinese HRC in Vietnam’s import market hiked further, from 57.8% to 74%.
The effects of the anti-dumping case will not be felt immediately given that the results will only be released in around 12 months’ time, market sources in ASEAN say.
This will coincide with the completion of the second-phase expansion of one of the two complainants, according to sources in Vietnam. Hoa Phat Group is in the midst of doubling the existing 5.6m t/year crude steel capacity with an additional 5.6m t/y at its Dung Quat complex, with completion expected by the first quarter of 2025 (see Kallanish passim).
As the AD findings are “more likely by the first quarter 2025, buyers will try to build up inventory if the prices remain low,” a regional trader says.
“[Producers] want to stop the import of Q195 and Q235 HRC,” a Hanoi trader says. Demand for hot rolled flats including coil, sheet and plate in Vietnam is around 12-13m t/y, Vietnamese trading sources estimate.
“Hopefully, this can improve the Vietnamese market situation. The market in Vietnam is not an easy one because both Chinese mills and traders find it hard to make profits,” a Chinese trader says. For the Chinese HRC producers, the Chinese domestic market is far more important because of its massive size. Low Chinese export prices are the result of a weak domestic market, which forces mills to export more, he adds.
Source:Kallanish
