Posted on 19 Jul 2024
Global battery demand is set to jump fourfold to 4,100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by decade-end, with lithium-ion technology expected to continue to dominate supply, according to a new report.
Boston-based consultancy firm Bain & Compan notes emerging battery technologies such as solid-state and high-density sodium-ion batteries are still in their prototype and pilot stages. The market share of these batteries is expected to be in the single-digit range by 2030, Kallanish Power Materials notes.
That said, solid state and sodium-ion will be the only commercialised emerging technologies by decade-end, the report adds.
“Batteries are the single biggest cost driver for OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] and they influence product performance,” says Mahadevan Seetharaman, a partner at Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing Services practice. “However, ongoing flux across battery chemistries, especially within lithium-ion batteries, are affecting OEM product roadmaps.”
“OEMs across the world face the critical choice of which battery type to use and whether to develop batteries in-house or through collaboration with other companies,” Seetharaman adds.
Meanwhile, nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) will continue to be the dominant cathode chemistries, the Boston-based firm says. LFP is expected to dominate in China due to a “robust” demand for mass-market EVs and established supply chains, alongside the emergence of LFP variants such as M3P and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LFMP).
While LFP’s share is set to increase in the US and the EU, it will still be lower than in China. The experts attributed this to the “non-existent” domestic LFP production and the less mature iron and phosphorous supply chains.
“Consequently, the cost advantage of LFP vs. NMC will be undercut by the costs of importing LFP from China,” the report notes. “This is exacerbated by unfavourable economics of recycling vs. NMC.”
The consultancy also expects a significant growth in EV battery recycling, driven by an expansion in feedstock volumes.
“In the coming years, various factors from evolving technology to shifting geopolitical tensions will continue to affect battery strategy,” the report concludes. “Leaders must assess what assumptions they can safely make now and what decisions they should keep open.”
Source:Kallanish Power Materials
