Posted on 06 May 2024
Australian fob coking coal was subdued during the week ended 3 May amid weak demand.
Kallanish assessed premium hard coking coal at $247.49/tonne fob Australia, slipping $1.47/t from $248.96/t fob the previous week.
On the Singapore Exchange, Premium Coking Coal Futures for June settled at $253/t fob on Friday. This was versus a May settlement price of $259/t fob a week earlier.
According to traders, Japanese steel maker JFE Steel bought 30,000t of German Creek for 20 May-15 June shipment at $239.75/t fob on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a bid was heard at $214/t for 40,000t of branded coking coal for 21-30 May laycan on Friday.
“The weakness is prevailing as weak demand is weighing on the market,” a Singapore-based analyst says.
On demand, he notes there seems to be a bit of slowdown from China as the high iron ore price and the fourth consecutive round of coke price hikes are eating into steel margins.
However, he says there is a chance of stronger prices for Australian met coal due to the tight supply from miners. He also notes that seasonally, China blast furnace utilisation rate tends to increase to June.
“Price are coming down, and in India, it may come down further as the monsoon is approaching,” says another India-based trader. Nevertheless, he foresees prices to turn around as the market may see an upswing after the elections in India.
BMI has also recently revised down its Australian coking coal price forecast for 2024 from $300/t to $260/t, as prices remain under pressure from poor demand.
“We believe coking coal prices will see limited respite in 2024 as global steel production remains grim,” the research house says.
Source:Kallanish
