Posted on 24 Apr 2024
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shared on Tuesday a bullish outlook for electric vehicles, despite recognising “near-term challenges” in some markets, Kallanish reports.
Its newly released Global EV Outlook 2024 report finds that global electric car sales are set to remain “robust” this year, reaching roughly 17 million units. That would mean a just over 20% on-year increase, from the nearly 14m electric cars sold last year. In 2023, EV sales were up 35% y-o-y or by 3.5m units, bringing the global electric car fleet to 40m cars.
Despite the slower growth rate and “legitimate uncertainties and concerns,” the IEA says data shows the EV momentum continues. “The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020,” it notes.
“Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth,” says IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly.”
The outlook estimates more than one in five new cars sold globally this year will be electric. Over the next decade, the IEA expects “surging demand” to remake the global auto industry and significantly reduce oil consumption for road transport.
Based on today’s policy settings alone, by 2030, almost one in three cars on the roads in China will be electric; and nearly one in five both in the US and the European Union.
Birol has acknowledged that the recent slowdown in sales growth is related to incentive changes in some markets. When queried about the potential need for countries with more mature EV penetration rates to reinstate subsidies to boost sales growth, he told Kallanish: “government policies do play an important role in the pace of penetration of electric cars.”
The director highlighted that any change in policies such as restarting subsidies or cutting them altogether should reflect a nation’s ambitions to remain competitive. These uncertainties are rising with elections across the globe, including in the US, where Donald Trump is running for President again.
“In many countries, there is a huge competition for the next chapter of the industrial sector, which is clean energy technology manufacturing. I think in the US or in Europe, or elsewhere, even if there is a change in the government policies not to be so friendly or supportive of the clean energy policies; if those countries and industries want to still be competitive, vis-à-vis China and other countries, they have to continue to push for the clean energy technology manufacturing,” he says.
“This is an industrial policy. This is not directly related to climate change concerns. If a government, economy wants to be competitive in the future, if an industry sector wants to be competitive in the future, they still need to push ahead with the electric cars and other clean energy technology manufacturing,” Birol concludes.
Source:Kallanish
