Posted on 05 Feb 2024
Battery metal prices remain pressured by poor sentiment, weak demand and buoyant supply, but there could be a rebound this year, says Anna-Marie Baisden, head of BMI’s auto and infrastructure research.
“We expect to see a slight improvement in battery metal prices heading into 2024 as battery demand picks up in mainland China,” she noted in a webinar attended by Kallanish. “That being said, market surpluses across the sector will keep prices from rallying to the highs seen earlier in 2023.”
“As the green energy transition accelerates, we expect to see EV production surge alongside the construction of renewable power sources to help governments and companies reach their decarbonisation goals which will once again push up battery input costs,” added Baisden.
BMI expects battery supply chain geopolitical and trade risks to put upward pressure on EV prices as policies such as local content requirements, resource nationalism and non-tariff trade barriers all support elevated upward pressure on vehicle prices in 2024.
Meanwhile, the BMI auto research team believes the commercial EV segment will spearhead the pay-as-you-go retail strategy as the cost of borrowing and the cost of buying commercial EVs remains high. “Tesla has been among the first to adopt this model. However, we expect more truck producers and fleet operators will adopt this model as they launch their medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks in 2024,” Baisden added.
Scania, PragmaCharge, and Mack Trucks are some of the companies likely to implement the alternative sale approach. Shell, meanwhile, plans to offer large hydrogen fuel cell trucks on a pay-as-you-go model to boost hydrogen offtake and fuel cell EV adoption.
Source:Kallanish
