Posted on 12 Jan 2024
BMI Industry Research sees oversupply and weak market fundamentals continuing to depress nickel prices in 2024, Kallanish notes.
The research house says in a note that it is revising down its nickel price forecast for 2024 to $20,000/tonne from $20,600/tonne as the market remains in a supply glut.
At the same time, weak Chinese demand and a limited growth outlook across major markets will place a cap on prices.
Nevertheless, it sees some support from the weakening of the US dollar throughout 2024, preventing prices from falling back to pre-pandemic levels.
BMI also expects the nickel market to remain in surplus in 2024, with the balance hovering around 337,200 tonnes, amid a rise in supply from key producers (like Indonesia). Meanwhile, a subdued global economic outlook presents downside risks to demand.
Beyond that, it expects to see the market go into deficit by 2028, as booming demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery industry drives up overall nickel consumption.
It also forecasts global refined nickel production to rise from 4.1 million tonnes in 2024 to 6.8mt in 2032. It notes that Indonesia, China, Japan, Canada, and Australia, will see steady production growth over the coming years.
Global consumption, on the other hand, is set for an increase in 2023, despite a subdued global growth outlook and weak mainland Chinese demand. It sees demand rising from
3.7mt in 2023 to 4mt in 2024.
Source:Kallanish
