Posted on 08 Dec 2023
The EU's imports of hot-rolled coil (HRC) under the ‘other countries' safeguard quota could exceed 1.2mn t in January, according to Argus estimates.
The quota for January-March is set at 923,594t, with anything beyond this subject to a safeguard duty. The October-December allocation of 933,743t was exhausted shortly after the quota reset, with around 1.05mn t put forward for customs clearance on 1 October.
Market participants sais a safeguard pro-rata duty of around 3.9pc was payable on all ‘other countries' imports. Should imports match the Argus estimate of 1.2mn t, they would be subject to a higher duty, of around 7.5pc.
Japanese HRC exports to the EU stood at around 340,000t in August-October, and are estimated at just under 350,000t in September-November — assuming November receipts were in line with 2023's monthly average. Similarly, exports from Taiwan are estimated at 340,000-350,000t in September-November. Receipts from Vietnam are estimated at 230,000-330,000t, and imports from Egypt at around 240,000t. The wide Vietnamese range reflects strong export volumes in August.
Using a similar calculation in September, Argus estimated October imports under the ‘other countries' quota of 1mn-1.1mn t.
Several market participants said this week they expected 1.3mn t to arrive under the quota in January. The calculation does not factor in tonnage that was not cleared in October and has been held over for January clearance.
Source:Argus Media
