Posted on 10 Oct 2023
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) has forecast nickel surpluses for the next three years, Kallanish notes.
INSG says in a statement that global nickel production will outpace demand. The implicit market balances are surpluses of 104,000 tonnes in 2022, 223,000t in 2023 and 239,000t in 2024.
Historically, market surpluses have been linked to LME deliverable/class I nickel, but in 2023 and 2024 the surplus will be mainly related to class II and nickel chemicals (principally nickel sulphate).
The INSG expects a recovery in the second half of 2023 in the stainless steel sector, with further growth in 2024, and increasing usage of nickel in batteries for electric vehicles (EV).
In Indonesia, nickel pig iron (NPI) production is forecast to continue to rise. Meanwhile, new high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) are continuing to ramp up output, and the conversion of NPI to nickel matte is growing.
In China, NPI production is likely to decrease in 2024, but nickel cathode and nickel sulphate production is anticipated to increase.
World primary nickel production was 3.06 million tonnes in 2022, and is forecast to reach 3.42mt in 2023 and 3.71mt in 2024. The estimates do not include any adjustment factor for possible production disruptions.
World primary nickel usage was 2.96mt in 2022. The INSG forecasts an increase to 3.20mt in 2023 and 3.47mt in 2024.
"The global economy was impacted positively by the reopening of China and lower energy prices at the beginning of 2023, but tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates to fight inflation are affecting business and consumer confidence," INSG says.
The World Stainless Association (formerly the International Stainless Steel Forum / ISSF) presented preliminary figures for the first half of 2023 showing that stainless steel melt shop production decreased by 0.9% year-on–year to 26.7mt.
Source:Kallanish
