Posted on 21 Apr 2023
The world's finished steel demand is forecast to settle at 1.98 billion tonnes in 2025, meanwhile, the focus of global steel production and consumption is now gradually shifting from advanced economies towards emerging market and developing economies, with China and India's standing in the global steel industry significantly improving, Fan Tiejun, president of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, shared with delegates at the 2nd China Steel Overseas Development Forum on April 19.
Addressing the forum held in Xiamen in Southeast China's Fujian, Fan estimated that Asia may see its steel demand approximate 1.4 billion tonnes for 2025, accounting for 70.7% of the world's total. This figure is also significantly higher than Europe's 210 million tonnes for Europe and North America's 148.7 million tonnes.
"In terms of per capita steel consumption, Asia is the most dynamic region in the global economy," he noted.
For example, "India and ASEAN are at a relatively early stage of industrialization and they have great potential for future economic development," according to Fan. "In these regions, per capita steel consumption is on the rise, and steel demand will also grow at a rapid rate," he added.
On the other hand, "Germany, France, the U.K. and Italy - all advanced economies - posted a slow increase in their per capita steel consumption," Fan pointed out, "as they have been stepping into the late stage of industrialization," he explained.
During the speech, Fan also predicted that in 2030, the world's total steel demand is expected to reach 2.03 billion tonnes, with Asian countries contributing 1.41 billion tonnes or 69.7% of the total volume.
The world's steel demand forecast (Unit: '000 tonnes)
Region | 2025 | 2030 | |
Asia | 1,396,800 | 1,412,000 | |
Europe | 210,000 | 216,000 | |
CIS | 64,600 | 68,700 | |
North America | 148,700 | 157,900 | |
South America | 50,000 | 52,600 | |
Africa | 44,200 | 51,300 | |
Middle East | 54,200 | 60,600 | |
Oceania | 7,000 | 7,500 | |
Global total | 1,975,500 | 2,026,600 | |
For 2023, the Short Range Outlook released by the World Steel Association (WSA) on April 18 forecast the world's steel demand may rebound 2.3% on year to 1.82 billion tonnes this year, and it is likely to gain 1.7% on year to 1.85 billion tonnes in 2024.
Particularly, Chinese steel demand is expected to increase 2% on year this year and to stay flat in the next year, while India will see "healthy" growth of 7.3% and 6.2% respectively on year in 2023 and 2024, according to WSA's release.
Source:Mysteel Global
