Posted on 20 Apr 2023
Global steel demand will begin to recover in 2023 after falling 3.2% in 2022, according to worldsteel’s latest Short Range Outlook. East and Southeast Asia will provide the bulk of demand growth in 2023, offsetting weakness in Europe and the USA, Kallanish notes.
Chinese steel demand is expected to rebound 2% to 939.3 million tonnes in 2023 before remaining flat in 2024. This follows a 3.2% drop in demand in 2022. Worldsteel notes that there may be a pick up in real estate construction activity later in 2023, but that major indicators for the sector remain very weak. Infrastructure investment is meanwhile moving to less steel-intensive projects.
Japan and South Korea are both expected to see a rebound from a weak 2022, although Korean demand will remain down from 2021. In Japan, 4% growth is expected this year to 57.2mt, followed by 1.2% in 2024. This will offset the 4.2% drop in demand in 2022. For South Korea however only a 2.9% rebound is expected this year to 52.7mt, and 2% in 2024. Korean demand slumped 8.6% in 2022. The country’s export sector will be constrained by the weaker global economy, worldsteel notes.
Asean countries meanwhile will continue to see strong structural steel demand growth. The weak global economy, reduced tourism, and higher interest rates have hit the region, and steel demand dipped 0.3% in 2022. The return of tourism and the restart of delayed infrastructure projects, in particular in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam, should drive stronger growth. In 2023 worldsteel expects Asean steel demand to increase 6.2% to 77.1mt, while in 2024 it could grow another 5.7%.
Overall, worldsteel expects an increase in steel demand in 2023 of 40.8mt to 1.8223 billion tonnes. Of that increase, 18.4mt is contributed by China, 4.5mt by Asean, 2.2mt by Japan, and 1.5mt by Korea.
Source:Kallanish
