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Posted on 02 Oct 2020

Message from Secretary General_September 2020

GDP Forecasts for ASEAN-6

In last month’s newsletter, I wrote about the impact of COVID19 on ASEAN-6 countries’ macroeconomics results, with only Vietnam being the only country registering positive growth in terms of GDP, Construction sector and Manufacturing sector, having overcome COVID19 fast. Other countries’ results were badly hit by the pandemic. So, what’s next?

From the Governments’ forecasts, it looks like Vietnam is the only ASEAN-6 country targeting a positive growth rate in 2020. In spite of a second outbreak in the central region, Vietnam is expected to sustain economic growth of 2.0-2.5% due to its early control of the pandemic.

According to the Minister of Planning and Investment, sustainable growth will see the country needing to increase public spending on major infrastructure works, creating more jobs and boosting industrial demand. Vietnam also needs to look for new markets, especially for its agriculture produce and especially countries that are facing food security risks. With all these, the effort will lead towards a growth of 6.7% in 2021

ADB also said that Vietnam’s economy will benefit from the continued diversion of production from China to Vietnam, a recovery in the Chinese economy, and the implementation of the free trade agreement with the European Union.

Indonesia, while still battling to bring the pandemic under control, expects the economy to contract a little (-1.7 to -0.6%), which is less severe as compared to the other ASEAN countries.  However, economic recovery 

depends on how soon the pandemic is contained.

Table 1: ASEAN-6 Government Forecast (%)

GDP Growth	2020	2021
Indonesia	-1.7 to -0.6	+4.5 to +5.5
Malaysia	-5.5 to -3.4	+5.0 to +8.0
Philippines	-5.5	+6.5 to +7.5
Singapore	-5.0 to -1.0	-
Thailand	-6.0 to -5.0	+4.0 to +5.0
Vietnam	+2.0 to +2.5	+6.7

Table 2: ADB Forecast (%) – 15 Sep 2020

GDP Growth	2020	2021
Indonesia	-1.0	+5.3
Malaysia	-5.0	+6.0
Philippines	-7.3	+6.5
Singapore	-6.2	+4.5
Thailand	-8.0	+4.5
Vietnam	+1.8	+6.3

Last month, we noted that construction growth in Thailand was 7.6% in Q2 2020. The Government is reported to be planning on increasing spending on road and rail projects to boost its economy further, starting October 2020 (start of fiscal year). The transport budget in the new fiscal year will be around 232 billion baht (US$7.4 billion), up about 32% from the current period. This plan also includes the development of a national rail hub in Ayutthaya, north of the capital of Bangkok and expansion of Bangkok’s mass-transit network and expressways linking several nearby provinces and the nation’s eastern seaboard. This stimulus is expected to counter the continuing weakness in the export and tourism related sectors.

The other countries having controlled the pandemic to a greater extent such as Malaysia and Singapore have recently announced stimulus packages to revive the domestic economy as external demand remains weak. 

For our readers to relate to the impact of COVID19, SEAISI is tracking COVID19 cases in selected countries. See details inside.

2020 SEAISI e-Events

• 2020 e-Seminar on Strengthening Transformation on Digitalization through Reliability and Productivity Improvement
• We had a successful event with more than 100 delegates. I hope all of you have found insights and learning tips from the experts from our supporting member countries, South Korea and Taiwan and also from Japan and Germany. A great thank you to our speakers! Danke schön, 감사합니다, 谢谢您, どうもありがとう!

 

• 2020 SEAISI e-Conference (Part II): Technology & Operations Development
• We are in the midst of this event, which spans over 4 afternoons. I wish our delegates a fruitful and informative event. Thank you for your participation. I would also like to thank all our speakers for your time and your valuable contribution.

 

• 2020 e-Talk 
• Upcoming after the e-Conference Part II, is e-Talk. Targeting Export Managers, Traders, Marketing Managers as well as C-Suite Level executives, such heatmaps will allow delegates to understand where are the markets for certain steel products, in particular ASEAN-6 and China markets. 
• This online event will be held at 2-4 pm on 6 October 2020. Registration is now open.
• To get a glimpse of the content for the e-Talk, take a look at the heatmap analysis in the second last article of this newsletter!

 

• 2020 e-Training on Enhancing Equipment Maintenance and Operation System
• This online event will be rescheduled to November 3, 2020.

Keep Your Distance. Wear A Mask. Stay Safe.

   YEOH WEE JIN
 

Source:SEAISI