Update of ASEAN-6 steel industry situation in the first half of 2018

Posted on 05 December 2018
 

Source: SEAISI
ASEAN-6’s apparent steel consumption in the first half of 2018 inched up marginally, by 0.2% y-o-y, to 36.01 million tonnes. Production registered a strong double-digit growth rate of 15.4% y-o-y to 18.6 million tonnes. Import dropped slightly, by 3% y-o-y, while export increased by more than a million tonnes to 6.4 million tonnes in the first half of 2018.
 
Apparent steel consumption (tonnes)
 
 
 
Indonesia’s steel demand continued to increase gradually. Demand in the first half of 2018 increased 1.2% y-o-y to 6.87 million tonnes. Domestic production and import both surged 10% y-o-y to 4.4 million tonnes and 3.6 million tonnes respectively. Export rose sharply, by more than 600,000 tonnes, in the first half of 2018. 
 
Long steel demand in Indonesia has been on the upward trend since 2011. Average growth rate was 3.5% y-o-y from 2011 to 2017. Demand in the first half of 2018 jumped 11% y-o-y.
 
Long steel production continued to increase with an average annual growth rate of 4.1% from 2011 to 2017. Production in the first half of 2018 grew 6.2% y-o-y. Import started to slow down from 2014. However, import in the first half of 2018 picked up with a double digit growth rate of 34.7% y-o-y. 
 
Indonesia is not a significant exporter of long steel. However, the export volume doubled to 201,889 tonnes in the first half of 2018.
 
Flat steel demand in Indonesia grew at an average annual growth rate of 3.8% for the period 2011 to 2017. Demand, however, dropped 4% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.
 
Indonesia’s domestic production of flat steel is not sufficient to serve domestic demand. However, domestic production volume has been on the rise. Production in the first half of 2018 registered a strong growth rate of 13.4% y-o-y while import saw a small increase of 3% y-o-y in the same period. 
 
Indonesia’s flat steel export volume has not been significant in the past. However, export volume surged by three folds to 940,000 tonnes in the first half of 2018.
 
Malaysia’s steel demand growth has moderated, registering an average annual growth rate of 2.3% from 2011 to 2017. Demand in the first half of 2018, however, picked up more significantly, at 6.6% y-o-y.
 
Domestic production declined at an average annual rate of 5% y-o-y from 2011 to 2017. Production in the first half of 2018 continued to decline, by 2.8% y-o-y.  Import continued to increase moderately, by 3.8% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. Export dropped significantly, by a double digit of 26.5% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. 
 
Long steel demand growth in Malaysia started to slow down after reaching a peak in 2014. Demand in the first half of 2018 increased moderately, by 3.5% y-o-y. 
 
While Malaysia has sufficient long steel production capacity, imports continue to be significant. Import of long steel rose by 17.5% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. Domestic production, on the other hand, stagnated.  Malaysia’s long steel export was only 158,000 tonnes in the first half of 2018, though the volume represented a 77% surge compared to the corresponding period of 2017.
 
Flat steel demand in Malaysia recorded an average annual growth rate of only1.3% from 2011 to 2017. However, demand in the first half of 2018 registered a high growth rate of 10.5% y-o-y. It is believed that the significant increase of flat steel demand in the first half of 2018 may be for the accumulation of inventory. 
 
Malaysia’s domestic production of hot-rolled flat steel has been minimum and because of that the country’s demand is met mainly by imports.  
 
Import in the first half of 2018 declined 1.3% y-o-y to 2.55 million tonnes. Malaysia’s export of flat steel dropped significantly, by 40% year-on-year, in the first six months of 2018. Only export of CRC increased, by 25% y-o-y, while export of other products such as pipes and tubes, declined sharply.
 
Steel demand in Philippines registered a strong annual growth rate of 11.5% from 2011 to 2017. However, steel demand growth started to slow down in 2017. The demand in the first half of 2018 increased only 3.8% y-o-y to 4.88 million tonnes. 
 
Domestic production increased at an average annual growth rate of 10% from 2011 to 2017. Production in the first half of 2018 grew by 5% y-o-y.  
 
Long steel demand in Philippines rose significantly, with an average growth rate of 12% y-o-y from 2011 to 2017. However, the demand started to slow down in 2017, with a -0.1% growth rate.  
 
Long steel production growth also started to slow down, registering a growth rate of 5% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. Around one-third of long steel demand was supplied by imports and the volume continued to increase, by a double digit of 11.9% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. There is no export of long steel in the country.
 
Flat steel demand in Philippines has increased significantly, with an average annual growth rate of 10.8% from 2011 to 2017. However, the demand started to slow down in 2017. Demand retreated 2.7% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.  There is no production for flat steel in the country. Therefore, all flat steel demand is supplied by imports.
 
Steel demand in Singapore has not been stable, mainly dependent upon the growth in construction sector.  Steel demand in the country began to register negative growth rates since 2016 and continued to decline by 4.9% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.
 
Domestic production in the first half of 2018 increased 10.6% y-o-y to nearly 300,000 tonnes. Export slowed down at an average rate of 8% per year from 2011 to 2017. However, export in the first half of 2018 picked up significantly, by 19% y-o-y.
 
Long steel demand in Singapore dropped significantly in 2016. The recovery in 2017 was only temporary. Long steel demand declined again, by  9% y-o-y, in the first half of 2018. 
 
Domestic production continued to recover after the sharp drop in 2013. Long steel output surged 10.6% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.  With limited production capacity, Singapore still needs to rely on long steel import. However, import continued to decline since 2016. Import was down 4.3% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. 
 
Long steel export, which is partly re-export volume, has not been stable. The volume dropped sharply in 2014 and 2015 but picked up continuously from 2016. The first half of 2018 saw an increase of 22.4% y-o-y.
 
Singapore’s flat steel demand has slowed down from 2013 onwards. However, the demand picked up at 8.7% y-o-y in the first half of 2018. There is no flat steel production facility in Singapore. Import continued to slow down since 2014, following demand. Some of import volume is for re-export.
 
Steel demand in Thailand dropped significantly in 2017 due to destocking activities. However, demand only picked up slightly, by 1.5% y-o-y to 8.48 million tonnes in the first half of 2018. 
 
Production stagnated at 3.5 million tonnes in the first half of 2018.  Import surged moderately. Thailand is not a major exporting country. However, export registered a double digit increase of 15% y-o-y.
 
Long steel demand in Thailand dropped significantly, by 27% y-o-y in 2017 due mainly to destocking activities. Demand in the first half of 2018 continued to decline, by 6.5% y-o-y. 
 
Long steel production declined 10.9% y-o-y to 1.9 million tonnes in the first half of 2018. On the other hand, long steel import increased by a double digit of 10.9% y-o-y. It was mainly due to the increase in import of bar and wire rod. 
 
Thailand is not a major exporter for long steel, except for section. However, the significant increase in bar export in the first half of 2018 resulted in total long steel export increasing by 21% y-o-y.
 
Flat steel demand in Thailand is somewhat stable from 2011 to 2017, with an average growth rate of 1.8% per annum. Flat steel demand in the first half of 2018 picked up moderately, at 5.7% y-o-y to 5.8 million tonnes.
 
Production continued to increase in the first half of 2018, with a double digit growth of 15.9% y-o-y. Import picked up from the decline in 2017 to registered a slight growth rate of 2.8% in the first half of 2018.
 
Thailand is not a major exporter for flat steel. However, the export volume increased 8.9% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.
 
Vietnam’s steel demand expanded by more than 20% per year from 2014 to 2016. However, demand in 2017 registered a decline of 5.8% y-o-y. Steel demand in the first half of 2018 continued to decline, at -5.3% y-o-y, to 9.6 million tonnes.
 
Production growth remained significant, registering a 43.3% y-o-y growth rate in the first half of 2018. Import slowed down and recorded a 20.3% y-o-y negative growth rate in the same period. Export, on the other hand surged by a million tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes. 
 
Long steel demand in Vietnam has expanded significantly from 2013 to 2016. However, long steel market in the country became stagnant from 2017 to the first half of 2018. 
 
Vietnam is quite self-sufficient for long product domestic supply. Domestic producers continue to expand production capacity with 11.8% growth rate in the first half of 2018 in order to serve export market and to substitute import. Import dropped significantly, by 30% y-o-y, while export rose sharply, by 42.5% y-o-y, in the first half of 2018.
 
Flat steel demand in Vietnam began to decline in 2017 after a continuous increase from 2011. Demand continued to decline, by 10.5% y-o-y, in the first half of 2018. Import began to slow down after Formosa Ha Tinh started its production in 2017. Import continued to decrease in the first half of 2018, by 18.7% y-o-y. Flat steel export expanded significantly since 2015. Volume jumped by 27% y-o-y in the first half of 2018.

 



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